Regional outlook
Texas
10-year outlook · 2026 → 2036
Population scenario 37,908,684
Trend score 85/100
Figures and sources
| Year | Population |
|---|---|
| 2020 | 29,237,895 |
| 2025 | 31,709,821 |
| 2026 · Trend-based baseline (estimate) | 32,228,740 |
Population definition: Resident population estimate
- Vintage 2025 National and State Population Estimates, NST-EST2025-ALLDATA · U.S. Census Bureau
How this is calculated
The compound annual rate between the two cited observations is extended to the source-check year as a model baseline, then 5, 10 or 20 years ahead. Score = 50 + twice that projected percentage change, capped at 0–100; grades start at 65, 45 and 25. This measures population momentum, not jobs, safety or overall quality of life.
A continuation scenario, not an official forecast. The model baseline is an extrapolation, not a new observed population count. Migration, housing supply and policy can change the trend.
Time from the model baseline year to a 20% population reduction if the same rate continues. This is a reference line, not the date a place disappears.
12 selected regions · comparison within this country