Regional outlook
North East
10-year outlook · 2026 → 2036
Population scenario 3,169,095
Trend score 74/100
Figures and sources
| Year | Population |
|---|---|
| 2020 | 2,637,000 |
| 2024 | 2,761,000 |
| 2026 · Trend-based baseline (estimate) | 2,825,170 |
Population definition: Resident population estimate
Published figures rounded to the nearest thousand
- Country and regional analysis: November 2025 — Annex: Population numbers by country and region · HM Treasury; ONS, National Records of Scotland and NISRA
How this is calculated
The compound annual rate between the two cited observations is extended to the source-check year as a model baseline, then 5, 10 or 20 years ahead. Score = 50 + twice that projected percentage change, capped at 0–100; grades start at 65, 45 and 25. This measures population momentum, not jobs, safety or overall quality of life.
A continuation scenario, not an official forecast. The model baseline is an extrapolation, not a new observed population count. Migration, housing supply and policy can change the trend.
Time from the model baseline year to a 20% population reduction if the same rate continues. This is a reference line, not the date a place disappears.
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