Taxi Driver

🇺🇸 United States · Transport & Logistics

Next in line#100 of 790 jobs in the United States · Among the riskiest 13%

Job Countdown

2 yrs 10 mo

21days 01:32:08:484

until AI starts replacing people in this job
Sep 8, 2029 · 1057 days left

Waymo sells driverless rides in several metro areas and adds more every year. Fleets stop adding drivers wherever it lands, with New York City last in line.

View replacement outlook

Replacement riskHigh

Human share in 204615%

Growth 25–35+11.5%

Estimated AI timeline

AI impact · Replacement

2026 · Now2032

Likely range 1 yr 4 mo – 4 yrs 10 mo

Taxi Driver: what AI changes and what stays

Robo-taxi service already carries paying passengers with no driver in several major cities and is adding more each year. A city's taxi fleets pull back on hiring drivers as soon as it arrives there, and the slowest cities, with the thickest local permitting, are where a driver keeps a wheel the longest.

Why do some cities lose taxi jobs before others?

Driverless rides that customers actually pay for are already running in several cities, and YOU’RE NEXT rates the underlying driving technology as strong today. Each city still has its own permit system for taxis and for self-driving cars, so a driverless service has to clear that city by city rather than all at once, and YOU’RE NEXT places the average city's pullback in driver hiring at around 2029, with the most heavily permitted cities lagging behind that.

What can a driver do that a robo-taxi can't?

A robo-taxi can drive the route, but it cannot read that a passenger is anxious, unwell, or about to be sick, and it cannot help an elderly rider get bags in and out of the trunk. Picking a route on the fly when a street closes or traffic backs up unexpectedly also still leans on a driver's live judgment rather than a fixed map, at least until routing software catches up fully.

What should a taxi driver do to stay employed longer?

Driving in a city with heavier permitting rules for both taxis and self-driving cars buys more time before a fleet stops adding human drivers, so that local detail is worth knowing. Building a reputation for the kind of trip a robo-taxi still handles poorly, helping riders with bags, kids, or medical needs, and staying calm with a difficult passenger, is worth more than speed on a familiar route.

Written 2026-09-26

Sources